24. Scarcity

If the other rules were the carrots, this is the stick.

Scarcity is the urge to acquire or hold on to resources that are in short or limited supply. We subconsciously assume that the scarcer something is, the more valuable it must be.

Cialdini highlights two main reasons this impacts our behaviour and decisions.

First, the mind likes to create shortcuts. The scarcity principle is one of them. It is easy to estimate an item's worth based on its availability. If something is rare, we assume it is of higher quality and worth more than something common. And this is true much of the time, that is why it is built into your psychology. Under most circumstances, this shortcut helps. But not always.

Second, scarcity limits our options, and we are hardwired to react against losing freedom of choice. You are psychologically built to watch the downside and keep as many options openly available as possible. This is grounded in human biology: the more options our ancestors had in the form of food or shelter, the more likely they were to survive. As a rule, you act against a restriction because it limits your freedom, and you come to want the restricted item or experience even more.

Has the quality of the item improved after it has been restricted? Of course not. And yet the Scarcity principle amplifies desire. To resolve the cognitive dissonance, the mind will even invent positive qualities for the thing you want in order to justify the increase in desire.

The same applies for information. Cialdini found that when a judge declares certain evidence non-admissible and tells jurors not to consider it, this can have the opposite effect. Jurors may actually pay more attention to the banned evidence than the admissible evidence when making their decision, valuing what is scarce or restricted more than what is freely available.

Ethical Use of Scarcity

Some resources are legitimately scarce, not least of which is time.

The organisation stole time from us. Our most precious resource, the one we can never get back. Our time is limited. One day you and I will both die. Although this is uncomfortable to sit with, I speak very directly about this because if recognising it motivates someone to take action, to be proactive in reclaiming their mind and making the most of the time they have left, then naming that reality serves the reader rather than manipulating them.

How JWs Use Scarcity

"Where else will we go? You have the sayings of everlasting life."

The organisation uses this tactic in several ways. One is by emphatically and repeatedly stating that "this is the only place in the world where you can get this information," which engages the Scarcity rule immediately.

It is reasonable to define something that is scarce as something in danger of disappearing, perhaps completely. Family, friendship, love, community, purpose, even our identity were all made into scarce resources.

Even if you were way up there on the compliance ladder, an "exemplary Christian" at the centre of the congregation, deep down you knew you were only ever one mistake away from a judicial committee. A one-sentence announcement away from being disfellowshipped, instantly becoming as if you had died to everyone you knew and loved.

This threat, this scarcity, impacted us to the point where we may have felt visceral panic and guilt if we did something that could endanger the precarious setup.

Another way Scarcity was used against us was by making life itself feel like a scarce resource. When you are being chased by a predator, you do not think about philosophical implications or long-term plans. You focus on surviving the next sixty seconds. When we are in survival state, the fight-flight-freeze system rules and the neocortex, the part of the brain responsible for long-term thinking and rational thought, gets put on standby.

When we are in survival state, our capacity for critical thinking is compromised.

I do not believe it was accidental that we experienced incessant repetition of "we are in the last days" and "Armageddon is around the corner," with constant reminders of persecution if you are faithful and divine execution if you are not.

Identification Exercise: Scarcity

• What felt scarce to you inside the organisation? Approval? Safety? Time? Love? Which of those scarcities drove the most compliant behaviour?
• Think about the phrase "where else will we go." Did you ever use it yourself, or hear it used by someone close to you? What was it really saying, underneath the surface? Was it faith, or was it fear?
• Where in your life now do you notice yourself making decisions based on a fear of losing something rather than a genuine desire to gain something? Does that pattern trace back?
• On a scale of 1-10, how effective was this tactic when it was used against you?